| Engine | Source | Signal | Lead | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNG_EXPORT | LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread | TTF: $16.81/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.14/mmBtu (ratio: 5.3x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W. | 21d |
82 · STRONG_BULL
|
| LNG_FEEDGAS | LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open | JKM proxy: $15.64/mmBtu | Henry Hub: $3.14 | Netback: +$9.00/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now). | 21d |
78 · STRONG_BULL
|
| STORAGE_FUNDAMENTAL | EIA Storage — Below 5Y Average | Storage at -14.9% below 5Y average. Below-average inventories = price floor elevated. Supportive for bulls. | 21d |
70 · BULL
|
| OPTIONS | UNG Options — PCR Contrarian | PCR = 0.00 (complacency — everyone buying calls). Crowded bullish options = sell signal. Market often punishes crowd. | 21d |
68 · BEAR
|
| PRE_DISCLOSURE | SEC EDGAR — Producer Hedging Activity | 12 major NG producers (EQT, RRC, CTRA, CHK) filed recent 10-Q with hedging disclosures. When insiders lock in prices at scale, they don't expect higher prices. Bearish commercial view — 30-90 day lead. | 45d |
65 · BEAR
|
| INTERMARKET | Intermarket — Crude vs NG Divergence | Crude -9.7% in 5d vs NG 6.1%. NG holding while crude falls — catch-down risk. | 21d |
62 · BEAR
|
| PIPELINE_BASIS | Pipeline Basis — Dominion South (Appalachian) | Dominion South at premium to HH (+0.52). Appalachian gas being pulled to Henry Hub — tight northeast supply. Mild bullish: regional tightness flowing through to HH. | 21d |
62 · BULL
|
| OPTIONS | UNG Options — Max Pain | Max pain at $4.00 UNG (-64.7% from current). Price gravitates toward max pain by expiry (2026-05-22). Options sellers control price pinning near this level. | 21d |
60 · BEAR
|
| OPTIONS | UNG Options — IV Compressed | IV at 6% — compressed (cheap options). Big move coming. Direction unknown but magnitude will surprise. | 21d |
55 · NEUTRAL
|
| SILENCE | UNG Short Interest — Low (Complacency) | UNG short interest only 0.0% of float. Low short interest = everyone already bullish. Little short-covering fuel. Rally may be exhausted. | 21d |
55 · BEAR
|