NG 2.844 -0.068 (-2.34%) MCX ₹272.47 · 2026-09-21 17:52:22 · 18 engines · 12 signals
6BULL
5BEAR
NEUTRAL · 11.1
🎯 ACTION: SKIP regime gate ✅ ON · setup FOLLOW_THROUGH_PENDING (44/100, NONE)
SKIP — verdict FOLLOW_THROUGH_PENDING, no actionable setup
FUTURES: SKIP — overall action = SKIP
OPTIONS: SKIP — overall action = SKIP
📅 Next: No immediate catalyst — watch EIA Thursday 10:30 AM ET
Valid until 2026-09-21T23:30 · ID 6f3c0f376785
11.1
MASTER SCORE
NEUTRAL
MASTER BIAS
6/11
BULL ENGINES
5/11
BEAR ENGINES
HIDDEN EDGE — what the market hasn't priced
Mixed signals — no clear hidden edge. Wait for 3+ engines to agree before positioning.
EngineSourceSignal LeadStrength
LNG_EXPORT LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread TTF: $24.84/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $2.84/mmBtu (ratio: 8.7x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W. 21d
82 · STRONG_BULL
STORAGE_FUNDAMENTAL EIA Storage — Well Above 5Y Average Storage at 3298 BCF = 16.5% ABOVE 5Y average (2830 BCF). Significant supply cushion suppresses price. Bears in control until deficit develops — could take entire injection season. 30d
82 · STRONG_BEAR
STORAGE_WHISPER Storage Whisper Model — EIA Surprise Forecast Own storage model estimates: +779 BCF (seasonal base: +55 BCF). Bullish build surprise of 724 BCF vs normal. Confidence: MEDIUM. Driver: weather adj=-6 BCF | prod adj=+731 BCF. 21d
82 · BEAR
BASIS Henry Hub Basis (Cash vs Futures) Henry Hub cash ($2.970) trading at 4.4% PREMIUM to NYMEX ($2.844). Physical gas scarce right now — futures must converge UP. This resolves in 1-5 days. 21d
80 · STRONG_BULL
LNG_FEEDGAS LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open JKM proxy: $23.39/mmBtu | Henry Hub: $2.84 | Netback: +$17.05/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now). 21d
78 · STRONG_BULL
POWER_BURN PowerBurn Engine — EIA monthly data Gas-fired generation: 128 GW vs seasonal normal 110 GW (+18 GW / +16%). Power sector burning more gas than weather model implies. Implied extra demand: +0.13 BCF/day above normal. 21d
75 · BULL
GWDD GWDD Engine — Cooling Demand Gas-weighted CDD: 60 vs normal 42 (+18). Power burn surge from A/C demand in gas-heavy grid regions. Implied extra burn: ~6.3 BCF/week. 21d
71 · BULL
OPTIONS UNG Options — PCR Contrarian PCR = 0.42 (complacency — everyone buying calls). Crowded bullish options = sell signal. Market often punishes crowd. 21d
68 · BEAR
PRE_DISCLOSURE SEC EDGAR — Producer Hedging Activity 12 major NG producers (EQT, RRC, CTRA, CHK) filed recent 10-Q with hedging disclosures. When insiders lock in prices at scale, they don't expect higher prices. Bearish commercial view — 30-90 day lead. 45d
65 · BEAR
CALENDAR Hurricane Season Calendar — Peak Peak hurricane season (Aug-Sep). Historical average: 2-3 major storms. Any Gulf threat = bullish NG spike. Check NHC Pre-Disclosure engine daily. 0d
62 · NEUTRAL
SILENCE UNG Short Interest — Low (Complacency) UNG short interest only 0.0% of float. Low short interest = everyone already bullish. Little short-covering fuel. Rally may be exhausted. 21d
55 · BEAR
VALIDATED_EDGE Seasonal Reversion (validated edge) Walk-forward-proven NG long edge: ng_seasonal_long active — hist win 70% (walk-forward, n≥515) | regime gate ON (supportive macro: vol 100.6% ≥ 55%, trailing seasonal tailwind +11.61% ≥ 4% (n=126)). Only setup in this report with OOS win-rate/R:R passing the 55%/1.5/30 gate. 21d
39 · BULL
PRICE PERFORMANCE
vs 5D-1.8%
vs 1M+4.1%
vs 3M-12.6%
vs 6M-8.1%
vs 1Y-3.2%
CONFIRMATION
NeedNeed bearish continuation below 2.826 with strong close
InvalidationBearish read weakens if price reclaims 2.906
StructureBearish expansion is the latest meaningful structure event (2026-09-21)
HISTORICAL STATS
Avg daily range0.195
Avg volume (1Y)157,363
52W high7.827
52W low2.483
Current2.844
DOMINANT CANDLE
Date2026-09-21
Candle TypeBREAKDOWN_BEAR
DirectionBEARISH
Score6.9
Base Score4.5
Recency Score2.4
Bars Ago0
Close2.844
Open2.902
High2.906
Low2.826
Body Pct72.5
Range Atr0.8
Vol Ratio0.9
Wick SignalNORMAL
Level ContextFib_500 @ 2.821
Pattern ContextNone | chart: Double Top, Lower Highs, Lower Lows
Trade Meaningsellers have seized control with breakdown strength
MARKET STORY
Current market regime: TRANSITIONAL
Dominant recent candle is BREAKDOWN_BEAR on 2026-09-21 with score 6.9
Trade meaning: sellers have seized control with breakdown strength
Key level context: Fib_500 @ 2.821
Secondary recent candle is BREAKDOWN_BEAR on 2026-09-09, showing bearish pressure
Short-term trend alignment is mixed
OPTIONS EDGE — India cost-net audits (synthetic-IV pass)
Cost-net India options audits across 4 sprints. Reports refresh via dedicated GHA workflows (stock-earnings weekly Sun 18:30 UTC; NIFTY-VRP / universe on-demand). Real IV will replace the Yang-Zhang RV proxy once optcore/nse_iv_snapshot.py accrues ~6-12mo of chain data; the cards below carry the synthetic-IV-only verdict.
NSE Stock Earnings Audit (Sprint 5)
18 cells · structures short_straddle, long_call · PreEarnings days_before 2 · OHLC period 5y · physical-exit E-6
MARGINAL1
FRAGILE15
FETCH_ERROR2
TickerStructure nWin% Mean ₹Total ₹ SharpePassVerdict
AXISBANK long_call 9 44.4% ₹-1,352 ₹-12,170 -2.46 0/5 FRAGILE
AXISBANK short_straddle 9 44.4% ₹-7,000 ₹-62,999 -9.46 1/5 FRAGILE
HDFCBANK long_call 16 50.0% ₹+1,196 ₹+19,137 +1.68 1/5 FRAGILE
HDFCBANK short_straddle 16 62.5% ₹+2,339 ₹+37,421 +3.55 2/5 MARGINAL
ICICIBANK long_call 8 50.0% ₹+1,501 ₹+12,011 +1.50 1/5 FRAGILE
ICICIBANK short_straddle 8 37.5% ₹-6,745 ₹-53,964 -6.49 0/5 FRAGILE
INFY long_call 19 47.4% ₹+5,071 ₹+96,352 +4.83 0/5 FRAGILE
INFY short_straddle 19 31.6% ₹-11,055 ₹-210,046 -11.61 1/5 FRAGILE
RELIANCE long_call 16 18.8% ₹-1,985 ₹-31,759 -2.95 1/5 FRAGILE
RELIANCE short_straddle 16 43.8% ₹-5,178 ₹-82,854 -9.16 1/5 FRAGILE
SBIN long_call 18 50.0% ₹+4,273 ₹+76,909 +1.79 0/5 FRAGILE
SBIN short_straddle 18 27.8% ₹-15,143 ₹-272,571 -8.54 0/5 FRAGILE
TATAMOTORS long_call — — — — — — FETCH_ERROR
TATAMOTORS short_straddle — — — — — — FETCH_ERROR
TATASTEEL long_call 7 42.9% ₹+5,473 ₹+38,310 +3.05 0/5 FRAGILE
TATASTEEL short_straddle 7 14.3% ₹-15,110 ₹-105,769 -16.88 1/5 FRAGILE
TCS long_call 16 31.2% ₹+1,143 ₹+18,291 +1.25 1/5 FRAGILE
TCS short_straddle 16 31.2% ₹-5,202 ₹-83,236 -10.47 1/5 FRAGILE
caveats (5)
  • Synthetic IV (Yang-Zhang RV proxy) — real IV requires DIY NSE-chain accrual (Sprint-3 module) or paid feed. Short-vol-into-earnings UNDERSTATES net edge with synthetic IV because RV ignores the pre-earnings IV ramp itself.
  • Cost stack via optcore.costs_india (NSE F&O: STT 0.10% sell + exch 0.0353% + SEBI ₹10/cr + 18% GST + stamp 0.003% buy). Bid-ask spread NOT modelled — real costs are HIGHER; Sprint 5 adds the bucketed liquidity layer.
  • Physical-settlement exit window enforced via pre_expiry_cutoff_days=6 (broker square-off ~E-6). Every outcome cross-checked against optcore.settlement.evaluate_position; any drift is reported in physical_exit_check.
  • Short-straddle margin (₹1L+ SPAN+exposure on a typical NSE F&O stock) means this strategy is ₹5L-tier only per optcore.capital_tiers — DO NOT trade at ₹5k. Capital_tiers HARD-BLOCKS NSE stock options at the ₹5k tier (SEBI Nov-2024 ₹15-20L notional minimum + physical delivery).
  • PreEarnings signal fires `days_before` calendar days before each announcement date; the engine then walks max_hold_bars=5 OR the E-6 cutoff, whichever comes first. Events outside the yfinance OHLC window are silently dropped.
NIFTY VRP Audit (Sprint 3)
report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_vrp_audit.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.
Universe Audit (Sprint 4)
report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_universe_audit_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.
NIFTY Long-Call Baseline (Sprint 2)
report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_backtest_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.