NG Intelligence Terminal

WATCHLIST BULLISH

conviction 4 · confidence 4

ENGINE VOTERS

BehaviorNO_TRADE

RegimeUNKNOWN

SMCUNKNOWN

MLLEAN_BULL

CandleBEARISH

FundamentalsNEUTRAL

TRADE PLAN

Entry3.173

Stop3.159

Target 13.328

Target 23.335

R:R—

KEY LEVELS

R · trap_level3.299

R · trap_level3.328

R · wick_high3.335

S · trap_level3.159

S · wick_low3.151

S · trap_level3.054

REGIME GATE

StatusON

Vol (ann)100.9%

Tailwind+11.74%

Reasonsupportive macro: vol 100.9% ≥ 55%, trailing seasonal tailwi

SETUP INTELLIGENCE

Score 35/100
No edge today: neutral or unclear setup. Monitor for setup development.

WHY BULLISH

+ TTF: $24.55/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.17/mmBtu (ratio: 7.7x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W.

+ JKM proxy: $23.21/mmBtu | Henry Hub: $3.17 | Netback: +$16.54/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now).

+ Gas-fired generation: 128 GW vs seasonal normal 110 GW (+18 GW / +16%). Power sector burning more gas than weather model implies. Implied extra demand: +0.13 BCF/day above normal.

NOT FULL CONVICTION

~ ML confidence 5% — models show marginal edge only (bull 48% / bear 52%)

~ Shoulder season (May–Sep) historically bearish for NG — structural demand headwind

RISKS

⚠ EIA Storage Report in 1 day (Thursday 10:30 ET) — can spike ±5% on surprise

⚠ Shoulder season bearish seasonality (May–Sep) — structural demand headwind

TOP SIGNALS

●EIA Storage Report Calendar85

●LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread82

●EIA Storage — Well Above 5Y Average82

●Storage Whisper Model — EIA Surprise Forecast82

●LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open78

TIMING

WindowWAIT

Master score-1.4

Valid whilemonitor price action vs entry zone

Abort ifclose beyond stop level 0.000 invalidate

CatalystEIA Thursday 10:30 AM ET

-1.4

MASTER SCORE

NEUTRAL

MASTER BIAS

4/10

BULL ENGINES

6/10

BEAR ENGINES

HIDDEN EDGE — what the market hasn't priced

Mixed signals — no clear hidden edge. Wait for 3+ engines to agree before positioning.

Engine	Source	Signal	Lead	Strength
CALENDAR	EIA Storage Report Calendar	EIA Natural Gas Storage Report TOMORROW (Thursday 10:30 AM ET). Highest volatility catalyst of the week. Consensus vs actual determines direction — check Weather engine for forecast. Strategy: position BEFORE open Thursday, not after number.	1d	85 · NEUTRAL
LNG_EXPORT	LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread	TTF: $24.55/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.17/mmBtu (ratio: 7.7x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W.	21d	82 · STRONG_BULL
STORAGE_FUNDAMENTAL	EIA Storage — Well Above 5Y Average	Storage at 3298 BCF = 16.5% ABOVE 5Y average (2830 BCF). Significant supply cushion suppresses price. Bears in control until deficit develops — could take entire injection season.	30d	82 · STRONG_BEAR
STORAGE_WHISPER	Storage Whisper Model — EIA Surprise Forecast	Own storage model estimates: +779 BCF (seasonal base: +55 BCF). Bullish build surprise of 724 BCF vs normal. Confidence: MEDIUM. Driver: weather adj=-6 BCF \| prod adj=+731 BCF.	21d	82 · BEAR
LNG_FEEDGAS	LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open	JKM proxy: $23.21/mmBtu \| Henry Hub: $3.17 \| Netback: +$16.54/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now).	21d	78 · STRONG_BULL
BASIS	Henry Hub Basis (Cash vs Futures)	Henry Hub cash ($2.970) at -6.4% DISCOUNT to NYMEX ($3.173). Physical oversupply — futures must converge DOWN. Bearish resolution in 1-5 days.	21d	75 · BEAR
POWER_BURN	PowerBurn Engine — EIA monthly data	Gas-fired generation: 128 GW vs seasonal normal 110 GW (+18 GW / +16%). Power sector burning more gas than weather model implies. Implied extra demand: +0.13 BCF/day above normal.	21d	75 · BULL
GWDD	GWDD Engine — Cooling Demand	Gas-weighted CDD: 58 vs normal 41 (+18). Power burn surge from A/C demand in gas-heavy grid regions. Implied extra burn: ~6.2 BCF/week.	21d	71 · BULL
PRE_DISCLOSURE	SEC EDGAR — Producer Hedging Activity	12 major NG producers (EQT, RRC, CTRA, CHK) filed recent 10-Q with hedging disclosures. When insiders lock in prices at scale, they don't expect higher prices. Bearish commercial view — 30-90 day lead.	45d	65 · BEAR
CALENDAR	Hurricane Season Calendar — Peak	Peak hurricane season (Aug-Sep). Historical average: 2-3 major storms. Any Gulf threat = bullish NG spike. Check NHC Pre-Disclosure engine daily.	0d	62 · NEUTRAL
OPTIONS	UNG Options — Max Pain	Max pain at $7.50 UNG (-30.9% from current). Price gravitates toward max pain by expiry (2026-09-23). Options sellers control price pinning near this level.	21d	60 · BEAR
OPTIONS	UNG Options — IV Compressed	IV at 6% — compressed (cheap options). Big move coming. Direction unknown but magnitude will surprise.	21d	55 · NEUTRAL
SILENCE	UNG Short Interest — Low (Complacency)	UNG short interest only 0.0% of float. Low short interest = everyone already bullish. Little short-covering fuel. Rally may be exhausted.	21d	55 · BEAR

PRICE PERFORMANCE

vs 5D+9.8%

vs 1M+14.1%

vs 3M-1.5%

vs 6M+7.8%

vs 1Y+13.1%

CONFIRMATION

NeedNeed bearish continuation below 2.817 with strong close

InvalidationBearish read weakens if price reclaims 3.023

StructureBullish expansion is the latest meaningful structure event (2026-09-22)

HISTORICAL STATS

Avg daily range0.196

Avg volume (1Y)157,172

52W high7.827

52W low2.483

Current3.173

DOMINANT CANDLE

Date2026-09-22

Candle TypeBULL_IMPULSE

DirectionBULLISH

Score8.8

Base Score6.4

Recency Score2.4

Bars Ago1

Close2.965

Open2.83

High3.023

Low2.817

Body Pct65.5

Range Atr1.9

Vol Ratio1.21

Wick SignalNORMAL

Level ContextFib_786 @ 2.938

Pattern ContextBullEngulf, TweezerBottom | chart: Double Top, Lower Highs, Higher Lows

Trade Meaningstrong directional bullish expansion candle

MARKET STORY

Current market regime: EVENT RISK

Dominant recent candle is BULL_IMPULSE on 2026-09-22 with score 8.8

Trade meaning: strong directional bullish expansion candle

Key level context: Fib_786 @ 2.938

Secondary recent candle is BREAKDOWN_BEAR on 2026-09-21, showing bearish pressure

Price is stacked above short-term trend averages

OPTIONS EDGE — India cost-net audits (synthetic-IV pass)

Cost-net India options audits across 4 sprints. Reports refresh via dedicated GHA workflows (stock-earnings weekly Sun 18:30 UTC; NIFTY-VRP / universe on-demand). Real IV will replace the Yang-Zhang RV proxy once optcore/nse_iv_snapshot.py accrues ~6-12mo of chain data; the cards below carry the synthetic-IV-only verdict.

NSE Stock Earnings Audit (Sprint 5)

18 cells · structures short_straddle, long_call · PreEarnings days_before 2 · OHLC period 5y · physical-exit E-6

MARGINAL1

FRAGILE15

FETCH_ERROR2

Ticker	Structure	n	Win%	Mean ₹	Total ₹	Sharpe	Pass	Verdict
AXISBANK	long_call	9	44.4%	₹-1,352	₹-12,170	-2.46	0/5	FRAGILE
AXISBANK	short_straddle	9	44.4%	₹-7,000	₹-62,999	-9.46	1/5	FRAGILE
HDFCBANK	long_call	16	50.0%	₹+1,196	₹+19,137	+1.68	1/5	FRAGILE
HDFCBANK	short_straddle	16	62.5%	₹+2,339	₹+37,421	+3.55	2/5	MARGINAL
ICICIBANK	long_call	8	50.0%	₹+1,501	₹+12,011	+1.50	1/5	FRAGILE
ICICIBANK	short_straddle	8	37.5%	₹-6,745	₹-53,964	-6.49	0/5	FRAGILE
INFY	long_call	19	47.4%	₹+5,071	₹+96,352	+4.83	0/5	FRAGILE
INFY	short_straddle	19	31.6%	₹-11,055	₹-210,046	-11.61	1/5	FRAGILE
RELIANCE	long_call	16	18.8%	₹-1,985	₹-31,759	-2.95	1/5	FRAGILE
RELIANCE	short_straddle	16	43.8%	₹-5,178	₹-82,854	-9.16	1/5	FRAGILE
SBIN	long_call	18	50.0%	₹+4,273	₹+76,909	+1.79	0/5	FRAGILE
SBIN	short_straddle	18	27.8%	₹-15,143	₹-272,571	-8.54	0/5	FRAGILE
TATAMOTORS	long_call	—	—	—	—	—	—	FETCH_ERROR
TATAMOTORS	short_straddle	—	—	—	—	—	—	FETCH_ERROR
TATASTEEL	long_call	7	42.9%	₹+5,473	₹+38,310	+3.05	0/5	FRAGILE
TATASTEEL	short_straddle	7	14.3%	₹-15,110	₹-105,769	-16.88	1/5	FRAGILE
TCS	long_call	16	31.2%	₹+1,143	₹+18,291	+1.25	1/5	FRAGILE
TCS	short_straddle	16	31.2%	₹-5,202	₹-83,236	-10.47	1/5	FRAGILE

caveats (5)

Synthetic IV (Yang-Zhang RV proxy) — real IV requires DIY NSE-chain accrual (Sprint-3 module) or paid feed. Short-vol-into-earnings UNDERSTATES net edge with synthetic IV because RV ignores the pre-earnings IV ramp itself.
Cost stack via optcore.costs_india (NSE F&O: STT 0.10% sell + exch 0.0353% + SEBI ₹10/cr + 18% GST + stamp 0.003% buy). Bid-ask spread NOT modelled — real costs are HIGHER; Sprint 5 adds the bucketed liquidity layer.
Physical-settlement exit window enforced via pre_expiry_cutoff_days=6 (broker square-off ~E-6). Every outcome cross-checked against optcore.settlement.evaluate_position; any drift is reported in physical_exit_check.
Short-straddle margin (₹1L+ SPAN+exposure on a typical NSE F&O stock) means this strategy is ₹5L-tier only per optcore.capital_tiers — DO NOT trade at ₹5k. Capital_tiers HARD-BLOCKS NSE stock options at the ₹5k tier (SEBI Nov-2024 ₹15-20L notional minimum + physical delivery).
PreEarnings signal fires `days_before` calendar days before each announcement date; the engine then walks max_hold_bars=5 OR the E-6 cutoff, whichever comes first. Events outside the yfinance OHLC window are silently dropped.

NIFTY VRP Audit (Sprint 3)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_vrp_audit.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.

Universe Audit (Sprint 4)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_universe_audit_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.

NIFTY Long-Call Baseline (Sprint 2)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_backtest_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.