NG Intelligence Terminal

FOLLOW THROUGH PENDING

conviction 4 · confidence 4

ENGINE VOTERS

BehaviorBULLISH

RegimeUNKNOWN

SMCUNKNOWN

MLLEAN_BULL

CandleBULLISH

FundamentalsNEUTRAL

TRADE PLAN

Entry3.242

Stop2.957

Target 13.813

Target 24.098

R:R1 : 2.00

KEY LEVELS

R · trap_level3.280

R · trap_level3.306

R · wick_high3.388

S · wick_high3.188

S · trap_level3.070

S · sweep_level3.020

REGIME GATE

StatusON

Vol (ann)102.9%

Tailwind+10.88%

Reasonsupportive macro: vol 102.9% ≥ 55%, trailing seasonal tailwi

SETUP INTELLIGENCE

Score 50/100
Uptrend intact, follow-through pending confirmation — LNG Arb: TTF vs Henry Hub Spread. Waiting for stronger entry trigger.

WHY BULLISH

+ TTF: $16.82/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.24/mmBtu (ratio: 5.2x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W.

+ JKM proxy: $15.66/mmBtu | Henry Hub: $3.24 | Netback: +$8.92/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now).

+ Gas-weighted CDD: 56 vs normal 38 (+19). Power burn surge from A/C demand in gas-heavy grid regions. Implied extra burn: ~6.6 BCF/week.

NOT FULL CONVICTION

~ ML confidence 29% — models show marginal edge only (bull 64% / bear 36%)

~ Counter-signal [BEAR]: Henry Hub cash ($3.070) at -5.3% DISCOUNT to NYMEX ($3.242). Physical oversupply

RISKS

⚠ EIA Storage Report in 1 day (Thursday 10:30 ET) — can spike ±5% on surprise

⚠ Henry Hub cash ($3.070) at -5.3% DISCOUNT to NYMEX ($3.242). Physical oversupply — futures must converge DOWN. Bearish resolution in 1-5 days.

TOP SIGNALS

●EIA Storage Report Calendar85

●LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread82

●LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open78

●Henry Hub Basis (Cash vs Futures)75

●PowerBurn Engine — EIA monthly data72

TIMING

WindowWAIT

Master score7.9

Valid whileprice above 2.963 (2-pip buffer above st

Abort ifdaily close below 2.957 invalidates setu

CatalystEIA Thursday 10:30 AM ET

7.9

MASTER SCORE

NEUTRAL

MASTER BIAS

5/10

BULL ENGINES

5/10

BEAR ENGINES

HIDDEN EDGE — what the market hasn't priced

Mixed signals — no clear hidden edge. Wait for 3+ engines to agree before positioning.

Engine	Source	Signal	Lead	Strength
CALENDAR	EIA Storage Report Calendar	EIA Natural Gas Storage Report TOMORROW (Thursday 10:30 AM ET). Highest volatility catalyst of the week. Consensus vs actual determines direction — check Weather engine for forecast. Strategy: position BEFORE open Thursday, not after number.	1d	85 · NEUTRAL
LNG_EXPORT	LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread	TTF: $16.82/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.24/mmBtu (ratio: 5.2x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W.	21d	82 · STRONG_BULL
LNG_FEEDGAS	LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open	JKM proxy: $15.66/mmBtu \| Henry Hub: $3.24 \| Netback: +$8.92/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now).	21d	78 · STRONG_BULL
BASIS	Henry Hub Basis (Cash vs Futures)	Henry Hub cash ($3.070) at -5.3% DISCOUNT to NYMEX ($3.242). Physical oversupply — futures must converge DOWN. Bearish resolution in 1-5 days.	21d	75 · BEAR
POWER_BURN	PowerBurn Engine — EIA monthly data	Gas-fired generation: 98 GW — 20 GW BELOW seasonal normal. Renewable generation, mild temps, or coal switch-back reducing gas burn. Demand shortfall: ~0.15 BCF/day — EIA build will surprise.	21d	72 · BEAR
GWDD	GWDD Engine — Cooling Demand	Gas-weighted CDD: 56 vs normal 38 (+19). Power burn surge from A/C demand in gas-heavy grid regions. Implied extra burn: ~6.6 BCF/week.	21d	71 · BULL
STORAGE_FUNDAMENTAL	EIA Storage — Below 5Y Average	Storage at -11.7% below 5Y average. Below-average inventories = price floor elevated. Supportive for bulls.	21d	70 · BULL
OPTIONS	UNG Options — PCR Contrarian	PCR = 0.44 (complacency — everyone buying calls). Crowded bullish options = sell signal. Market often punishes crowd.	21d	68 · BEAR
PRE_DISCLOSURE	SEC EDGAR — Producer Hedging Activity	12 major NG producers (EQT, RRC, CTRA, CHK) filed recent 10-Q with hedging disclosures. When insiders lock in prices at scale, they don't expect higher prices. Bearish commercial view — 30-90 day lead.	45d	65 · BEAR
PIPELINE_BASIS	Pipeline Basis — Dominion South (Appalachian)	Dominion South at premium to HH (+1.86). Appalachian gas being pulled to Henry Hub — tight northeast supply. Mild bullish: regional tightness flowing through to HH.	21d	62 · BULL
CALENDAR	Hurricane Season Calendar	Hurricane season ACTIVE (Jun 1 – Nov 30). Gulf of Mexico offshore NG production (~2 BCF/day) at risk. Monitor NOAA NHC daily. Cat 3+ in Gulf = immediate supply shock.	0d	55 · NEUTRAL
SILENCE	UNG Short Interest — Low (Complacency)	UNG short interest only 0.0% of float. Low short interest = everyone already bullish. Little short-covering fuel. Rally may be exhausted.	21d	55 · BEAR

PRICE PERFORMANCE

vs 5D+6.6%

vs 1M+13.1%

vs 3M+11.1%

vs 6M-34.1%

vs 1Y-12.9%

CONFIRMATION

NeedNeed bullish continuation above 3.306 with strong close

InvalidationBullish read weakens if price loses 3.057

StructureBullish expansion is the latest meaningful structure event (2026-05-28)

HISTORICAL STATS

Avg daily range0.208

Avg volume (1Y)156,450

52W high7.827

52W low2.483

Current3.242

DOMINANT CANDLE

Date2026-05-28

Candle TypeBREAKOUT_BULL

DirectionBULLISH

Score11.1

Base Score9.3

Recency Score1.8

Bars Ago4

Close3.285

Open3.088

High3.306

Low3.057

Body Pct79.1

Range Atr1.76

Vol Ratio1.5

Wick SignalNORMAL

Level ContextFib_786 @ 3.278

Pattern ContextNone | chart: Higher Highs, Higher Lows

Trade Meaningbuyers have seized control with breakout strength

MARKET STORY

Current market regime: EVENT RISK

Dominant recent candle is BREAKOUT_BULL on 2026-05-28 with score 11.1

Trade meaning: buyers have seized control with breakout strength

Key level context: Fib_786 @ 3.278

Secondary recent candle is BREAKOUT_BULL on 2026-05-11, showing bullish pressure

Price is stacked above short-term trend averages

OPTIONS EDGE — India cost-net audits (synthetic-IV pass)

Cost-net India options audits across 4 sprints. Reports refresh via dedicated GHA workflows (stock-earnings weekly Sun 18:30 UTC; NIFTY-VRP / universe on-demand). Real IV will replace the Yang-Zhang RV proxy once optcore/nse_iv_snapshot.py accrues ~6-12mo of chain data; the cards below carry the synthetic-IV-only verdict.

NSE Stock Earnings Audit (Sprint 5)

18 cells · structures short_straddle, long_call · PreEarnings days_before 2 · OHLC period 5y · physical-exit E-6

MARGINAL1

FRAGILE15

FETCH_ERROR2

Ticker	Structure	n	Win%	Mean ₹	Total ₹	Sharpe	Pass	Verdict
AXISBANK	long_call	9	44.4%	₹-1,352	₹-12,170	-2.46	0/5	FRAGILE
AXISBANK	short_straddle	9	44.4%	₹-7,000	₹-62,999	-9.46	1/5	FRAGILE
HDFCBANK	long_call	16	50.0%	₹+1,196	₹+19,137	+1.68	1/5	FRAGILE
HDFCBANK	short_straddle	16	62.5%	₹+2,339	₹+37,421	+3.55	2/5	MARGINAL
ICICIBANK	long_call	8	50.0%	₹+1,501	₹+12,011	+1.50	1/5	FRAGILE
ICICIBANK	short_straddle	8	37.5%	₹-6,745	₹-53,964	-6.49	0/5	FRAGILE
INFY	long_call	19	47.4%	₹+5,071	₹+96,352	+4.83	0/5	FRAGILE
INFY	short_straddle	19	31.6%	₹-11,055	₹-210,046	-11.61	1/5	FRAGILE
RELIANCE	long_call	16	18.8%	₹-1,985	₹-31,759	-2.95	1/5	FRAGILE
RELIANCE	short_straddle	16	43.8%	₹-5,178	₹-82,854	-9.16	1/5	FRAGILE
SBIN	long_call	18	50.0%	₹+4,273	₹+76,909	+1.79	0/5	FRAGILE
SBIN	short_straddle	18	27.8%	₹-15,143	₹-272,571	-8.54	0/5	FRAGILE
TATAMOTORS	long_call	—	—	—	—	—	—	FETCH_ERROR
TATAMOTORS	short_straddle	—	—	—	—	—	—	FETCH_ERROR
TATASTEEL	long_call	7	42.9%	₹+5,473	₹+38,310	+3.05	0/5	FRAGILE
TATASTEEL	short_straddle	7	14.3%	₹-15,110	₹-105,769	-16.88	1/5	FRAGILE
TCS	long_call	16	31.2%	₹+1,143	₹+18,291	+1.25	1/5	FRAGILE
TCS	short_straddle	16	31.2%	₹-5,202	₹-83,236	-10.47	1/5	FRAGILE

caveats (5)

Synthetic IV (Yang-Zhang RV proxy) — real IV requires DIY NSE-chain accrual (Sprint-3 module) or paid feed. Short-vol-into-earnings UNDERSTATES net edge with synthetic IV because RV ignores the pre-earnings IV ramp itself.
Cost stack via optcore.costs_india (NSE F&O: STT 0.10% sell + exch 0.0353% + SEBI ₹10/cr + 18% GST + stamp 0.003% buy). Bid-ask spread NOT modelled — real costs are HIGHER; Sprint 5 adds the bucketed liquidity layer.
Physical-settlement exit window enforced via pre_expiry_cutoff_days=6 (broker square-off ~E-6). Every outcome cross-checked against optcore.settlement.evaluate_position; any drift is reported in physical_exit_check.
Short-straddle margin (₹1L+ SPAN+exposure on a typical NSE F&O stock) means this strategy is ₹5L-tier only per optcore.capital_tiers — DO NOT trade at ₹5k. Capital_tiers HARD-BLOCKS NSE stock options at the ₹5k tier (SEBI Nov-2024 ₹15-20L notional minimum + physical delivery).
PreEarnings signal fires `days_before` calendar days before each announcement date; the engine then walks max_hold_bars=5 OR the E-6 cutoff, whichever comes first. Events outside the yfinance OHLC window are silently dropped.

NIFTY VRP Audit (Sprint 3)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_vrp_audit.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.

Universe Audit (Sprint 4)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_universe_audit_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.

NIFTY Long-Call Baseline (Sprint 2)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_backtest_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.