NG Intelligence Terminal

BULLISH

conviction 5 · confidence 5

ENGINE VOTERS

BehaviorBULLISH

RegimeUNKNOWN

SMCUNKNOWN

MLLEAN_BULL

CandleNEUTRAL_TO_MIXED

FundamentalsNEUTRAL

TRADE PLAN

Entry2.969

Stop2.968

Target 13.000

Target 23.000

R:R—

KEY LEVELS

R · wick_high2.991

R · equal_highs_c3.000

S · trap_level2.968

S · spike_high2.955

S · sweep_level2.947

REGIME GATE

StatusON

Vol (ann)100.2%

Tailwind+11.74%

Reasonsupportive macro: vol 100.3% ≥ 55%, trailing seasonal tailwi

SETUP INTELLIGENCE

Score 52/100
No edge today: avg confidence too low. Monitor for setup development.

WHY BULLISH

+ TTF: $24.02/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $2.97/mmBtu (ratio: 8.1x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W.

+ Gas-fired generation: 160 GW vs seasonal normal 88 GW (+72 GW / +82%). Power sector burning more gas than weather model implies. Implied extra demand: +0.54 BCF/day above normal.

+ Henry Hub cash ($3.180) trading at 7.1% PREMIUM to NYMEX ($2.969). Physical gas scarce right now — futures must converge UP. This resolves in 1-5 days.

NOT FULL CONVICTION

~ ML confidence 14% — models show marginal edge only (bull 57% / bear 43%)

~ Shoulder season (May–Sep) historically bearish for NG — structural demand headwind

RISKS

⚠ EIA Storage Report in 0 days (Thursday 10:30 ET) — can spike ±5% on surprise

⚠ Shoulder season bearish seasonality (May–Sep) — structural demand headwind

TOP SIGNALS

●LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread82

●EIA Storage — Well Above 5Y Average82

●PowerBurn Engine — EIA monthly data82

●Henry Hub Basis (Cash vs Futures)80

●LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open78

TIMING

Window2-4W

Master score21.6

Valid whilemonitor price action vs entry zone

Abort ifclose beyond stop level 0.000 invalidate

CatalystEIA Storage Report upcoming (Thursday 10

21.6

MASTER SCORE

BULL

MASTER BIAS

7/10

BULL ENGINES

3/10

BEAR ENGINES

HIDDEN EDGE — what the market hasn't priced

Market doesn't yet price: LNG exports maxed = domestic supply tightening + cash market at premium to futures = physical shortage NOW + gas-fired generation above weather model = structural power demand + LNG feedgas near max = export terminals pulling maximum supply + Waha basis collapse = Permian gas stranded (less HH supply). EIA report in <3 days amplifies this. Triangulation: 7/18 engines bullish. Price likely moves before news.

Engine	Source	Signal	Lead	Strength
LNG_EXPORT	LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread	TTF: $24.02/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $2.97/mmBtu (ratio: 8.1x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W.	21d	82 · STRONG_BULL
STORAGE_FUNDAMENTAL	EIA Storage — Well Above 5Y Average	Storage at 3415 BCF = 20.6% ABOVE 5Y average (2831 BCF). Significant supply cushion suppresses price. Bears in control until deficit develops — could take entire injection season.	30d	82 · STRONG_BEAR
POWER_BURN	PowerBurn Engine — EIA monthly data	Gas-fired generation: 160 GW vs seasonal normal 88 GW (+72 GW / +82%). Power sector burning more gas than weather model implies. Implied extra demand: +0.54 BCF/day above normal.	21d	82 · BULL
BASIS	Henry Hub Basis (Cash vs Futures)	Henry Hub cash ($3.180) trading at 7.1% PREMIUM to NYMEX ($2.969). Physical gas scarce right now — futures must converge UP. This resolves in 1-5 days.	21d	80 · STRONG_BULL
LNG_FEEDGAS	LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open	JKM proxy: $23.11/mmBtu \| Henry Hub: $2.97 \| Netback: +$16.64/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now).	21d	78 · STRONG_BULL
PRE_DISCLOSURE	SEC EDGAR — Producer Hedging Activity	12 major NG producers (EQT, RRC, CTRA, CHK) filed recent 10-Q with hedging disclosures. When insiders lock in prices at scale, they don't expect higher prices. Bearish commercial view — 30-90 day lead.	45d	65 · BEAR
PIPELINE_BASIS	Pipeline Basis — Dominion South (Appalachian)	Dominion South at premium to HH (+5.12). Appalachian gas being pulled to Henry Hub — tight northeast supply. Mild bullish: regional tightness flowing through to HH.	21d	62 · BULL
CALENDAR	Storage Season Calendar — Withdrawal Season Start	October: heating season begins. Utilities start withdrawing from storage. Net flow flips from injection to withdrawal. Storage trajectory sets price for entire winter. Check current storage vs 5Y average (EIA data).	0d	60 · BULL
SILENCE	UNG Short Interest — Low (Complacency)	UNG short interest only 0.0% of float. Low short interest = everyone already bullish. Little short-covering fuel. Rally may be exhausted.	21d	55 · BEAR
VALIDATED_EDGE	Seasonal Reversion (validated edge)	Walk-forward-proven NG long edge: ng_seasonal_long active — hist win 70% (walk-forward, n≥515) \| regime gate ON (supportive macro: vol 100.3% ≥ 55%, trailing seasonal tailwind +11.74% ≥ 4% (n=126)). Only setup in this report with OOS win-rate/R:R passing the 55%/1.5/30 gate.	21d	39 · BULL

PRICE PERFORMANCE

vs 5D-9.9%

vs 1M+2.2%

vs 3M-7.1%

vs 6M+5.3%

vs 1Y-10.1%

CONFIRMATION

NeedNeed breakout beyond 3.317/2.979 to resolve indecision

InvalidationCurrent read invalidates if price sharply violates dominant candle range 2.979-3.317

StructureBullish expansion is the latest meaningful structure event (2026-09-24)

HISTORICAL STATS

Avg daily range0.197

Avg volume (1Y)158,318

52W high7.827

52W low2.483

Current2.969

DOMINANT CANDLE

Date2026-09-24

Candle TypeBREAKOUT_BULL

DirectionBULLISH

Score8.8

Base Score7.0

Recency Score1.8

Bars Ago5

Close3.297

Open3.037

High3.317

Low2.979

Body Pct76.9

Range Atr2.71

Vol Ratio0.7

Wick SignalNORMAL

Level ContextFib_786 @ 3.294

Pattern ContextNone | chart: Lower Highs, Higher Lows, Symmetrical Triangle

Trade Meaningbuyers have seized control with breakout strength

MARKET STORY

Current market regime: TRENDING

Dominant recent candle is BREAKOUT_BULL on 2026-09-24 with score 8.8

Trade meaning: buyers have seized control with breakout strength

Key level context: Fib_786 @ 3.294

Secondary recent candle is BULL_IMPULSE on 2026-09-22, showing bullish pressure

Short-term trend alignment is mixed

OPTIONS EDGE — India cost-net audits (synthetic-IV pass)

Cost-net India options audits across 4 sprints. Reports refresh via dedicated GHA workflows (stock-earnings weekly Sun 18:30 UTC; NIFTY-VRP / universe on-demand). Real IV will replace the Yang-Zhang RV proxy once optcore/nse_iv_snapshot.py accrues ~6-12mo of chain data; the cards below carry the synthetic-IV-only verdict.

NSE Stock Earnings Audit (Sprint 5)

18 cells · structures short_straddle, long_call · PreEarnings days_before 2 · OHLC period 5y · physical-exit E-6

MARGINAL1

FRAGILE15

FETCH_ERROR2

Ticker	Structure	n	Win%	Mean ₹	Total ₹	Sharpe	Pass	Verdict
AXISBANK	long_call	9	44.4%	₹-1,352	₹-12,170	-2.46	0/5	FRAGILE
AXISBANK	short_straddle	9	44.4%	₹-7,000	₹-62,999	-9.46	1/5	FRAGILE
HDFCBANK	long_call	16	50.0%	₹+1,196	₹+19,137	+1.68	1/5	FRAGILE
HDFCBANK	short_straddle	16	62.5%	₹+2,339	₹+37,421	+3.55	2/5	MARGINAL
ICICIBANK	long_call	8	50.0%	₹+1,501	₹+12,011	+1.50	1/5	FRAGILE
ICICIBANK	short_straddle	8	37.5%	₹-6,745	₹-53,964	-6.49	0/5	FRAGILE
INFY	long_call	19	47.4%	₹+5,071	₹+96,352	+4.83	0/5	FRAGILE
INFY	short_straddle	19	31.6%	₹-11,055	₹-210,046	-11.61	1/5	FRAGILE
RELIANCE	long_call	16	18.8%	₹-1,985	₹-31,759	-2.95	1/5	FRAGILE
RELIANCE	short_straddle	16	43.8%	₹-5,178	₹-82,854	-9.16	1/5	FRAGILE
SBIN	long_call	18	50.0%	₹+4,273	₹+76,909	+1.79	0/5	FRAGILE
SBIN	short_straddle	18	27.8%	₹-15,143	₹-272,571	-8.54	0/5	FRAGILE
TATAMOTORS	long_call	—	—	—	—	—	—	FETCH_ERROR
TATAMOTORS	short_straddle	—	—	—	—	—	—	FETCH_ERROR
TATASTEEL	long_call	7	42.9%	₹+5,473	₹+38,310	+3.05	0/5	FRAGILE
TATASTEEL	short_straddle	7	14.3%	₹-15,110	₹-105,769	-16.88	1/5	FRAGILE
TCS	long_call	16	31.2%	₹+1,143	₹+18,291	+1.25	1/5	FRAGILE
TCS	short_straddle	16	31.2%	₹-5,202	₹-83,236	-10.47	1/5	FRAGILE

caveats (5)

Synthetic IV (Yang-Zhang RV proxy) — real IV requires DIY NSE-chain accrual (Sprint-3 module) or paid feed. Short-vol-into-earnings UNDERSTATES net edge with synthetic IV because RV ignores the pre-earnings IV ramp itself.
Cost stack via optcore.costs_india (NSE F&O: STT 0.10% sell + exch 0.0353% + SEBI ₹10/cr + 18% GST + stamp 0.003% buy). Bid-ask spread NOT modelled — real costs are HIGHER; Sprint 5 adds the bucketed liquidity layer.
Physical-settlement exit window enforced via pre_expiry_cutoff_days=6 (broker square-off ~E-6). Every outcome cross-checked against optcore.settlement.evaluate_position; any drift is reported in physical_exit_check.
Short-straddle margin (₹1L+ SPAN+exposure on a typical NSE F&O stock) means this strategy is ₹5L-tier only per optcore.capital_tiers — DO NOT trade at ₹5k. Capital_tiers HARD-BLOCKS NSE stock options at the ₹5k tier (SEBI Nov-2024 ₹15-20L notional minimum + physical delivery).
PreEarnings signal fires `days_before` calendar days before each announcement date; the engine then walks max_hold_bars=5 OR the E-6 cutoff, whichever comes first. Events outside the yfinance OHLC window are silently dropped.

NIFTY VRP Audit (Sprint 3)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_vrp_audit.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.

Universe Audit (Sprint 4)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_universe_audit_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.

NIFTY Long-Call Baseline (Sprint 2)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_backtest_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.