NG Intelligence Terminal

LONG READY

conviction 5 · confidence 5

ENGINE VOTERS

BehaviorBULLISH

RegimeUNKNOWN

SMCUNKNOWN

MLBULLISH

CandleBULLISH

FundamentalsNEUTRAL

TRADE PLAN

Entry3.070

Stop2.817

Target 13.575

Target 23.828

R:R1 : 2.00

KEY LEVELS

R · wick_high3.188

R · trap_level3.280

R · wick_high3.494

S · sweep_level3.020

S · broken_level3.006

REGIME GATE

StatusON

Vol (ann)103.2%

Tailwind+10.41%

Reasonsupportive macro: vol 103.3% ≥ 55%, trailing seasonal tailwi

SETUP INTELLIGENCE

Score 65/100
Strong buy setup: TTF: $15.80/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.07/mmBtu (ratio: 5.1x). Europe paying 3x+ → e.

WHY BULLISH

+ TTF: $15.80/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.07/mmBtu (ratio: 5.1x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W.

+ JKM proxy: $14.69/mmBtu | Henry Hub: $3.07 | Netback: +$8.12/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now).

+ 2026-05-11 breakout candle (score 10.4/18) holding above 2.936 for 12 session(s) — follow-through confirmed

NOT FULL CONVICTION

~ Shoulder season (May–Sep) historically bearish for NG — structural demand headwind

~ Counter-signal [BEAR]: PCR = 0.00 (complacency — everyone buying calls). Crowded bullish options = sell

RISKS

⚠ Shoulder season bearish seasonality (May–Sep) — structural demand headwind

⚠ PCR = 0.00 (complacency — everyone buying calls). Crowded bullish options = sell signal. Market often punishes crowd.

TOP SIGNALS

●LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread82

●LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open78

●UNG Options — PCR Contrarian68

●SEC EDGAR — Producer Hedging Activity65

●UNG Options — Max Pain60

TIMING

WindowWAIT

Master score5.1

Valid whileprice above 2.823 (2-pip buffer above st

Abort ifdaily close below 2.817 invalidates setu

CatalystNo immediate catalyst — watch EIA Thursd

5.1

MASTER SCORE

NEUTRAL

MASTER BIAS

2/6

BULL ENGINES

4/6

BEAR ENGINES

HIDDEN EDGE — what the market hasn't priced

Mixed signals — no clear hidden edge. Wait for 3+ engines to agree before positioning.

Engine	Source	Signal	Lead	Strength
LNG_EXPORT	LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread	TTF: $15.80/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.07/mmBtu (ratio: 5.1x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W.	21d	82 · STRONG_BULL
LNG_FEEDGAS	LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open	JKM proxy: $14.69/mmBtu \| Henry Hub: $3.07 \| Netback: +$8.12/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now).	21d	78 · STRONG_BULL
OPTIONS	UNG Options — PCR Contrarian	PCR = 0.00 (complacency — everyone buying calls). Crowded bullish options = sell signal. Market often punishes crowd.	21d	68 · BEAR
PRE_DISCLOSURE	SEC EDGAR — Producer Hedging Activity	12 major NG producers (EQT, RRC, CTRA, CHK) filed recent 10-Q with hedging disclosures. When insiders lock in prices at scale, they don't expect higher prices. Bearish commercial view — 30-90 day lead.	45d	65 · BEAR
OPTIONS	UNG Options — Max Pain	Max pain at $4.00 UNG (-64.2% from current). Price gravitates toward max pain by expiry (2026-05-29). Options sellers control price pinning near this level.	21d	60 · BEAR
OPTIONS	UNG Options — IV Compressed	IV at 6% — compressed (cheap options). Big move coming. Direction unknown but magnitude will surprise.	21d	55 · NEUTRAL
SILENCE	UNG Short Interest — Low (Complacency)	UNG short interest only 0.0% of float. Low short interest = everyone already bullish. Little short-covering fuel. Rally may be exhausted.	21d	55 · BEAR

PRICE PERFORMANCE

vs 5D+2.2%

vs 1M+20.0%

vs 3M+8.6%

vs 6M-32.5%

vs 1Y-4.2%

CONFIRMATION

NeedNeed bullish continuation above 2.936 with strong close

InvalidationBullish read weakens if price loses 2.751

StructureBullish expansion is the latest meaningful structure event (2026-05-11)

HISTORICAL STATS

Avg daily range0.207

Avg volume (1Y)155,202

52W high7.827

52W low2.483

Current3.070

DOMINANT CANDLE

Date2026-05-11

Candle TypeBREAKOUT_BULL

DirectionBULLISH

Score10.4

Base Score9.9

Recency Score0.5

Bars Ago12

Close2.91

Open2.752

High2.936

Low2.751

Body Pct85.4

Range Atr1.4

Vol Ratio1.44

Wick SignalNORMAL

Level ContextFib_382 @ 2.869

Pattern ContextBullEngulf | chart: Double Bottom, Higher Highs, Higher Lows

Trade Meaningbuyers have seized control with breakout strength

MARKET STORY

Current market regime: TRENDING

Dominant recent candle is BREAKOUT_BULL on 2026-05-11 with score 10.4

Trade meaning: buyers have seized control with breakout strength

Key level context: Fib_382 @ 2.869

Secondary recent candle is BULL_IMPULSE on 2026-05-27, showing bullish pressure

Price is stacked above short-term trend averages

OPTIONS EDGE — India cost-net audits (synthetic-IV pass)

Cost-net India options audits across 4 sprints. Reports refresh via dedicated GHA workflows (stock-earnings weekly Sun 18:30 UTC; NIFTY-VRP / universe on-demand). Real IV will replace the Yang-Zhang RV proxy once optcore/nse_iv_snapshot.py accrues ~6-12mo of chain data; the cards below carry the synthetic-IV-only verdict.

NSE Stock Earnings Audit (Sprint 5)

18 cells · structures short_straddle, long_call · PreEarnings days_before 2 · OHLC period 5y · physical-exit E-6

MARGINAL1

FRAGILE15

FETCH_ERROR2

Ticker	Structure	n	Win%	Mean ₹	Total ₹	Sharpe	Pass	Verdict
AXISBANK	long_call	9	44.4%	₹-1,352	₹-12,170	-2.46	0/5	FRAGILE
AXISBANK	short_straddle	9	44.4%	₹-7,000	₹-62,999	-9.46	1/5	FRAGILE
HDFCBANK	long_call	16	50.0%	₹+1,196	₹+19,137	+1.68	1/5	FRAGILE
HDFCBANK	short_straddle	16	62.5%	₹+2,339	₹+37,421	+3.55	2/5	MARGINAL
ICICIBANK	long_call	8	50.0%	₹+1,501	₹+12,011	+1.50	1/5	FRAGILE
ICICIBANK	short_straddle	8	37.5%	₹-6,745	₹-53,964	-6.49	0/5	FRAGILE
INFY	long_call	19	47.4%	₹+5,071	₹+96,352	+4.83	0/5	FRAGILE
INFY	short_straddle	19	31.6%	₹-11,055	₹-210,046	-11.61	1/5	FRAGILE
RELIANCE	long_call	16	18.8%	₹-1,985	₹-31,759	-2.95	1/5	FRAGILE
RELIANCE	short_straddle	16	43.8%	₹-5,178	₹-82,854	-9.16	1/5	FRAGILE
SBIN	long_call	18	50.0%	₹+4,273	₹+76,909	+1.79	0/5	FRAGILE
SBIN	short_straddle	18	27.8%	₹-15,143	₹-272,571	-8.54	0/5	FRAGILE
TATAMOTORS	long_call	—	—	—	—	—	—	FETCH_ERROR
TATAMOTORS	short_straddle	—	—	—	—	—	—	FETCH_ERROR
TATASTEEL	long_call	7	42.9%	₹+5,473	₹+38,310	+3.05	0/5	FRAGILE
TATASTEEL	short_straddle	7	14.3%	₹-15,110	₹-105,769	-16.88	1/5	FRAGILE
TCS	long_call	16	31.2%	₹+1,143	₹+18,291	+1.25	1/5	FRAGILE
TCS	short_straddle	16	31.2%	₹-5,202	₹-83,236	-10.47	1/5	FRAGILE

caveats (5)

Synthetic IV (Yang-Zhang RV proxy) — real IV requires DIY NSE-chain accrual (Sprint-3 module) or paid feed. Short-vol-into-earnings UNDERSTATES net edge with synthetic IV because RV ignores the pre-earnings IV ramp itself.
Cost stack via optcore.costs_india (NSE F&O: STT 0.10% sell + exch 0.0353% + SEBI ₹10/cr + 18% GST + stamp 0.003% buy). Bid-ask spread NOT modelled — real costs are HIGHER; Sprint 5 adds the bucketed liquidity layer.
Physical-settlement exit window enforced via pre_expiry_cutoff_days=6 (broker square-off ~E-6). Every outcome cross-checked against optcore.settlement.evaluate_position; any drift is reported in physical_exit_check.
Short-straddle margin (₹1L+ SPAN+exposure on a typical NSE F&O stock) means this strategy is ₹5L-tier only per optcore.capital_tiers — DO NOT trade at ₹5k. Capital_tiers HARD-BLOCKS NSE stock options at the ₹5k tier (SEBI Nov-2024 ₹15-20L notional minimum + physical delivery).
PreEarnings signal fires `days_before` calendar days before each announcement date; the engine then walks max_hold_bars=5 OR the E-6 cutoff, whichever comes first. Events outside the yfinance OHLC window are silently dropped.

NIFTY VRP Audit (Sprint 3)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_vrp_audit.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.

Universe Audit (Sprint 4)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_universe_audit_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.

NIFTY Long-Call Baseline (Sprint 2)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_backtest_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.