NG 3.245 +0.049 (+1.53%) MCX ₹308.92 · 2026-07-05 07:01:46 · 18 engines · 8 signals
5BULL
3BEAR
BULL · 20.2
🎯 ACTION: SKIP regime gate ✅ ON · setup FOLLOW_THROUGH_PENDING (49/100, LOW)
SKIP — verdict FOLLOW_THROUGH_PENDING, no actionable setup
FUTURES: SKIP — overall action = SKIP
OPTIONS: SKIP — overall action = SKIP
⚠ INVALIDATE if MCX < ₹284 (stop ₹284 (STRUCTURE))
📅 Next: No immediate catalyst — watch EIA Thursday 10:30 AM ET
Valid until 2026-07-05T09:00 · ID 2017f181ea77
20.2
MASTER SCORE
BULL
MASTER BIAS
5/8
BULL ENGINES
3/8
BEAR ENGINES
HIDDEN EDGE — what the market hasn't priced
Market doesn't yet price: LNG exports maxed = domestic supply tightening + cash market at premium to futures = physical shortage NOW + gas-weighted degree days above normal = residential demand surge + LNG feedgas near max = export terminals pulling maximum supply + Waha basis collapse = Permian gas stranded (less HH supply). Triangulation: 5/18 engines bullish. Price likely moves before news.
EngineSourceSignal LeadStrength
LNG_EXPORT LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread TTF: $14.83/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.25/mmBtu (ratio: 4.6x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W. 21d
82 · STRONG_BULL
GWDD GWDD Engine — Cooling Demand Gas-weighted CDD: 116 vs normal 75 (+41). Power burn surge from A/C demand in gas-heavy grid regions. Implied extra burn: ~14.3 BCF/week. 21d
82 · BULL
STORAGE_WHISPER Storage Whisper Model — EIA Surprise Forecast Own storage model estimates: +786 BCF (seasonal base: +70 BCF). Bullish build surprise of 716 BCF vs normal. Confidence: MEDIUM. Driver: weather adj=-14 BCF | prod adj=+731 BCF. 21d
82 · BEAR
LNG_FEEDGAS LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open JKM proxy: $14.01/mmBtu | Henry Hub: $3.25 | Netback: +$7.27/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now). 21d
78 · STRONG_BULL
PRE_DISCLOSURE SEC EDGAR — Producer Hedging Activity 12 major NG producers (EQT, RRC, CTRA, CHK) filed recent 10-Q with hedging disclosures. When insiders lock in prices at scale, they don't expect higher prices. Bearish commercial view — 30-90 day lead. 45d
65 · BEAR
BASIS Henry Hub Basis (Cash vs Futures) HH basis +2.6% premium to futures. Mild physical tightness — supportive for prices. 21d
62 · BULL
PIPELINE_BASIS Pipeline Basis — Dominion South (Appalachian) Dominion South at premium to HH (+3.67). Appalachian gas being pulled to Henry Hub — tight northeast supply. Mild bullish: regional tightness flowing through to HH. 21d
62 · BULL
SILENCE UNG Short Interest — Low (Complacency) UNG short interest only 0.0% of float. Low short interest = everyone already bullish. Little short-covering fuel. Rally may be exhausted. 21d
55 · BEAR
PRICE PERFORMANCE
vs 5D+0.4%
vs 1M+1.0%
vs 3M+15.9%
vs 6M-12.0%
vs 1Y-4.8%
CONFIRMATION
NeedNeed bullish continuation above 3.306 with strong close
InvalidationBullish read weakens if price loses 3.057
StructureBullish expansion is the latest meaningful structure event (2026-05-28)
HISTORICAL STATS
Avg daily range0.203
Avg volume (1Y)156,189
52W high7.827
52W low2.483
Current3.245
DOMINANT CANDLE
Date2026-05-28
Candle TypeBREAKOUT_BULL
DirectionBULLISH
Score8.7
Base Score9.3
Recency Score-0.6
Bars Ago25
Close3.285
Open3.088
High3.306
Low3.057
Body Pct79.1
Range Atr1.76
Vol Ratio1.5
Wick SignalNORMAL
Level ContextFib_786 @ 3.315
Pattern ContextNone | chart: Double Bottom, Lower Highs, Lower Lows
Trade Meaningbuyers have seized control with breakout strength
MARKET STORY
Current market regime: TRENDING
Dominant recent candle is BREAKOUT_BULL on 2026-05-28 with score 8.7
Trade meaning: buyers have seized control with breakout strength
Key level context: Fib_786 @ 3.315
Secondary recent candle is BREAKOUT_BULL on 2026-06-25, showing bullish pressure
Price is stacked above short-term trend averages
OPTIONS EDGE — India cost-net audits (synthetic-IV pass)
Cost-net India options audits across 4 sprints. Reports refresh via dedicated GHA workflows (stock-earnings weekly Sun 18:30 UTC; NIFTY-VRP / universe on-demand). Real IV will replace the Yang-Zhang RV proxy once optcore/nse_iv_snapshot.py accrues ~6-12mo of chain data; the cards below carry the synthetic-IV-only verdict.
NSE Stock Earnings Audit (Sprint 5)
18 cells · structures short_straddle, long_call · PreEarnings days_before 2 · OHLC period 5y · physical-exit E-6
MARGINAL1
FRAGILE15
FETCH_ERROR2
TickerStructure nWin% Mean ₹Total ₹ SharpePassVerdict
AXISBANK long_call 9 44.4% ₹-1,352 ₹-12,170 -2.46 0/5 FRAGILE
AXISBANK short_straddle 9 44.4% ₹-7,000 ₹-62,999 -9.46 1/5 FRAGILE
HDFCBANK long_call 16 50.0% ₹+1,196 ₹+19,137 +1.68 1/5 FRAGILE
HDFCBANK short_straddle 16 62.5% ₹+2,339 ₹+37,421 +3.55 2/5 MARGINAL
ICICIBANK long_call 8 50.0% ₹+1,501 ₹+12,011 +1.50 1/5 FRAGILE
ICICIBANK short_straddle 8 37.5% ₹-6,745 ₹-53,964 -6.49 0/5 FRAGILE
INFY long_call 19 47.4% ₹+5,071 ₹+96,352 +4.83 0/5 FRAGILE
INFY short_straddle 19 31.6% ₹-11,055 ₹-210,046 -11.61 1/5 FRAGILE
RELIANCE long_call 16 18.8% ₹-1,985 ₹-31,759 -2.95 1/5 FRAGILE
RELIANCE short_straddle 16 43.8% ₹-5,178 ₹-82,854 -9.16 1/5 FRAGILE
SBIN long_call 18 50.0% ₹+4,273 ₹+76,909 +1.79 0/5 FRAGILE
SBIN short_straddle 18 27.8% ₹-15,143 ₹-272,571 -8.54 0/5 FRAGILE
TATAMOTORS long_call — — — — — — FETCH_ERROR
TATAMOTORS short_straddle — — — — — — FETCH_ERROR
TATASTEEL long_call 7 42.9% ₹+5,473 ₹+38,310 +3.05 0/5 FRAGILE
TATASTEEL short_straddle 7 14.3% ₹-15,110 ₹-105,769 -16.88 1/5 FRAGILE
TCS long_call 16 31.2% ₹+1,143 ₹+18,291 +1.25 1/5 FRAGILE
TCS short_straddle 16 31.2% ₹-5,202 ₹-83,236 -10.47 1/5 FRAGILE
caveats (5)
  • Synthetic IV (Yang-Zhang RV proxy) — real IV requires DIY NSE-chain accrual (Sprint-3 module) or paid feed. Short-vol-into-earnings UNDERSTATES net edge with synthetic IV because RV ignores the pre-earnings IV ramp itself.
  • Cost stack via optcore.costs_india (NSE F&O: STT 0.10% sell + exch 0.0353% + SEBI ₹10/cr + 18% GST + stamp 0.003% buy). Bid-ask spread NOT modelled — real costs are HIGHER; Sprint 5 adds the bucketed liquidity layer.
  • Physical-settlement exit window enforced via pre_expiry_cutoff_days=6 (broker square-off ~E-6). Every outcome cross-checked against optcore.settlement.evaluate_position; any drift is reported in physical_exit_check.
  • Short-straddle margin (₹1L+ SPAN+exposure on a typical NSE F&O stock) means this strategy is ₹5L-tier only per optcore.capital_tiers — DO NOT trade at ₹5k. Capital_tiers HARD-BLOCKS NSE stock options at the ₹5k tier (SEBI Nov-2024 ₹15-20L notional minimum + physical delivery).
  • PreEarnings signal fires `days_before` calendar days before each announcement date; the engine then walks max_hold_bars=5 OR the E-6 cutoff, whichever comes first. Events outside the yfinance OHLC window are silently dropped.
NIFTY VRP Audit (Sprint 3)
report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_vrp_audit.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.
Universe Audit (Sprint 4)
report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_universe_audit_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.
NIFTY Long-Call Baseline (Sprint 2)
report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_backtest_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.