NG Intelligence Terminal

FOLLOW THROUGH PENDING

conviction 3 · confidence 3

ENGINE VOTERS

BehaviorNO_TRADE

RegimeUNKNOWN

SMCUNKNOWN

MLLEAN_BULL

CandleNEUTRAL_TO_MIXED

FundamentalsNEUTRAL

TRADE PLAN

Entry3.005

Stop3.000

Target 13.017

Target 23.017

R:R—

KEY LEVELS

R · wick_low3.017

R · broken_level3.017

S · equal_highs_c3.000

S · equal_lows_co3.000

REGIME GATE

StatusON

Vol (ann)100.2%

Tailwind+11.80%

Reasonsupportive macro: vol 100.2% ≥ 55%, trailing seasonal tailwi

SETUP INTELLIGENCE

Score 36/100
No edge today: neutral or unclear setup. Monitor for setup development.

WHY BULLISH

+ TTF: $23.96/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.00/mmBtu (ratio: 8.0x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W.

+ Gas-fired generation: 160 GW vs seasonal normal 110 GW (+50 GW / +45%). Power sector burning more gas than weather model implies. Implied extra demand: +0.38 BCF/day above normal.

+ Henry Hub cash ($3.180) trading at 5.8% PREMIUM to NYMEX ($3.005). Physical gas scarce right now — futures must converge UP. This resolves in 1-5 days.

NOT FULL CONVICTION

~ ML confidence 17% — models show marginal edge only (bull 58% / bear 42%)

~ Shoulder season (May–Sep) historically bearish for NG — structural demand headwind

RISKS

⚠ EIA Storage Report in 1 day (Thursday 10:30 ET) — can spike ±5% on surprise

⚠ Shoulder season bearish seasonality (May–Sep) — structural demand headwind

TOP SIGNALS

●EIA Storage Report Calendar85

●LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread82

●EIA Storage — Well Above 5Y Average82

●PowerBurn Engine — EIA monthly data82

●Henry Hub Basis (Cash vs Futures)80

TIMING

WindowWAIT

Master score13.9

Valid whilemonitor price action vs entry zone

Abort ifclose beyond stop level 0.000 invalidate

CatalystEIA Thursday 10:30 AM ET

13.9

MASTER SCORE

NEUTRAL

MASTER BIAS

6/10

BULL ENGINES

4/10

BEAR ENGINES

HIDDEN EDGE — what the market hasn't priced

Mixed signals — no clear hidden edge. Wait for 3+ engines to agree before positioning.

Engine	Source	Signal	Lead	Strength
CALENDAR	EIA Storage Report Calendar	EIA Natural Gas Storage Report TOMORROW (Thursday 10:30 AM ET). Highest volatility catalyst of the week. Consensus vs actual determines direction — check Weather engine for forecast. Strategy: position BEFORE open Thursday, not after number.	1d	85 · NEUTRAL
LNG_EXPORT	LNG Arb — TTF vs Henry Hub Spread	TTF: $23.96/mmBtu vs Henry Hub: $3.00/mmBtu (ratio: 8.0x). Europe paying 3x+ → every available LNG molecule exported → domestic supply tightens → Henry Hub must rise 2-4W.	21d	82 · STRONG_BULL
STORAGE_FUNDAMENTAL	EIA Storage — Well Above 5Y Average	Storage at 3351 BCF = 18.4% ABOVE 5Y average (2831 BCF). Significant supply cushion suppresses price. Bears in control until deficit develops — could take entire injection season.	30d	82 · STRONG_BEAR
POWER_BURN	PowerBurn Engine — EIA monthly data	Gas-fired generation: 160 GW vs seasonal normal 110 GW (+50 GW / +45%). Power sector burning more gas than weather model implies. Implied extra demand: +0.38 BCF/day above normal.	21d	82 · BULL
BASIS	Henry Hub Basis (Cash vs Futures)	Henry Hub cash ($3.180) trading at 5.8% PREMIUM to NYMEX ($3.005). Physical gas scarce right now — futures must converge UP. This resolves in 1-5 days.	21d	80 · STRONG_BULL
LNG_FEEDGAS	LNG Arb — JKM Netback Open	JKM proxy: $22.82/mmBtu \| Henry Hub: $3.00 \| Netback: +$16.32/mmBtu after shipping. Asian LNG arb wide open — every available US cargo gets exported. Structural export demand locked in for 3-6 months (cargo bookings made now).	21d	78 · STRONG_BULL
OPTIONS	UNG Options — PCR Contrarian	PCR = 0.48 (complacency — everyone buying calls). Crowded bullish options = sell signal. Market often punishes crowd.	21d	68 · BEAR
PRE_DISCLOSURE	SEC EDGAR — Producer Hedging Activity	12 major NG producers (EQT, RRC, CTRA, CHK) filed recent 10-Q with hedging disclosures. When insiders lock in prices at scale, they don't expect higher prices. Bearish commercial view — 30-90 day lead.	45d	65 · BEAR
CALENDAR	Hurricane Season Calendar — Peak	Peak hurricane season (Aug-Sep). Historical average: 2-3 major storms. Any Gulf threat = bullish NG spike. Check NHC Pre-Disclosure engine daily.	0d	62 · NEUTRAL
PIPELINE_BASIS	Pipeline Basis — Dominion South (Appalachian)	Dominion South at premium to HH (+5.12). Appalachian gas being pulled to Henry Hub — tight northeast supply. Mild bullish: regional tightness flowing through to HH.	21d	62 · BULL
SILENCE	UNG Short Interest — Low (Complacency)	UNG short interest only 0.0% of float. Low short interest = everyone already bullish. Little short-covering fuel. Rally may be exhausted.	21d	55 · BEAR
VALIDATED_EDGE	Seasonal Reversion (validated edge)	Walk-forward-proven NG long edge: ng_seasonal_long active — hist win 70% (walk-forward, n≥515) \| regime gate ON (supportive macro: vol 100.2% ≥ 55%, trailing seasonal tailwind +11.80% ≥ 4% (n=126)). Only setup in this report with OOS win-rate/R:R passing the 55%/1.5/30 gate.	21d	39 · BULL

PRICE PERFORMANCE

vs 5D-0.6%

vs 1M+2.4%

vs 3M-6.7%

vs 6M+4.2%

vs 1Y-8.0%

CONFIRMATION

NeedNeed breakout beyond 3.317/2.979 to resolve indecision

InvalidationCurrent read invalidates if price sharply violates dominant candle range 2.979-3.317

StructureBullish expansion is the latest meaningful structure event (2026-09-24)

HISTORICAL STATS

Avg daily range0.197

Avg volume (1Y)158,282

52W high7.827

52W low2.483

Current3.005

DOMINANT CANDLE

Date2026-09-24

Candle TypeBREAKOUT_BULL

DirectionBULLISH

Score8.8

Base Score7.0

Recency Score1.8

Bars Ago4

Close3.297

Open3.037

High3.317

Low2.979

Body Pct76.9

Range Atr2.71

Vol Ratio0.7

Wick SignalNORMAL

Level ContextFib_786 @ 3.294

Pattern ContextNone | chart: Lower Highs, Higher Lows, Symmetrical Triangle

Trade Meaningbuyers have seized control with breakout strength

MARKET STORY

Current market regime: EVENT RISK

Dominant recent candle is BREAKOUT_BULL on 2026-09-24 with score 8.8

Trade meaning: buyers have seized control with breakout strength

Key level context: Fib_786 @ 3.294

Secondary recent candle is BULL_IMPULSE on 2026-09-22, showing bullish pressure

Short-term trend alignment is mixed

OPTIONS EDGE — India cost-net audits (synthetic-IV pass)

Cost-net India options audits across 4 sprints. Reports refresh via dedicated GHA workflows (stock-earnings weekly Sun 18:30 UTC; NIFTY-VRP / universe on-demand). Real IV will replace the Yang-Zhang RV proxy once optcore/nse_iv_snapshot.py accrues ~6-12mo of chain data; the cards below carry the synthetic-IV-only verdict.

NSE Stock Earnings Audit (Sprint 5)

18 cells · structures short_straddle, long_call · PreEarnings days_before 2 · OHLC period 5y · physical-exit E-6

MARGINAL1

FRAGILE15

FETCH_ERROR2

Ticker	Structure	n	Win%	Mean ₹	Total ₹	Sharpe	Pass	Verdict
AXISBANK	long_call	9	44.4%	₹-1,352	₹-12,170	-2.46	0/5	FRAGILE
AXISBANK	short_straddle	9	44.4%	₹-7,000	₹-62,999	-9.46	1/5	FRAGILE
HDFCBANK	long_call	16	50.0%	₹+1,196	₹+19,137	+1.68	1/5	FRAGILE
HDFCBANK	short_straddle	16	62.5%	₹+2,339	₹+37,421	+3.55	2/5	MARGINAL
ICICIBANK	long_call	8	50.0%	₹+1,501	₹+12,011	+1.50	1/5	FRAGILE
ICICIBANK	short_straddle	8	37.5%	₹-6,745	₹-53,964	-6.49	0/5	FRAGILE
INFY	long_call	19	47.4%	₹+5,071	₹+96,352	+4.83	0/5	FRAGILE
INFY	short_straddle	19	31.6%	₹-11,055	₹-210,046	-11.61	1/5	FRAGILE
RELIANCE	long_call	16	18.8%	₹-1,985	₹-31,759	-2.95	1/5	FRAGILE
RELIANCE	short_straddle	16	43.8%	₹-5,178	₹-82,854	-9.16	1/5	FRAGILE
SBIN	long_call	18	50.0%	₹+4,273	₹+76,909	+1.79	0/5	FRAGILE
SBIN	short_straddle	18	27.8%	₹-15,143	₹-272,571	-8.54	0/5	FRAGILE
TATAMOTORS	long_call	—	—	—	—	—	—	FETCH_ERROR
TATAMOTORS	short_straddle	—	—	—	—	—	—	FETCH_ERROR
TATASTEEL	long_call	7	42.9%	₹+5,473	₹+38,310	+3.05	0/5	FRAGILE
TATASTEEL	short_straddle	7	14.3%	₹-15,110	₹-105,769	-16.88	1/5	FRAGILE
TCS	long_call	16	31.2%	₹+1,143	₹+18,291	+1.25	1/5	FRAGILE
TCS	short_straddle	16	31.2%	₹-5,202	₹-83,236	-10.47	1/5	FRAGILE

caveats (5)

Synthetic IV (Yang-Zhang RV proxy) — real IV requires DIY NSE-chain accrual (Sprint-3 module) or paid feed. Short-vol-into-earnings UNDERSTATES net edge with synthetic IV because RV ignores the pre-earnings IV ramp itself.
Cost stack via optcore.costs_india (NSE F&O: STT 0.10% sell + exch 0.0353% + SEBI ₹10/cr + 18% GST + stamp 0.003% buy). Bid-ask spread NOT modelled — real costs are HIGHER; Sprint 5 adds the bucketed liquidity layer.
Physical-settlement exit window enforced via pre_expiry_cutoff_days=6 (broker square-off ~E-6). Every outcome cross-checked against optcore.settlement.evaluate_position; any drift is reported in physical_exit_check.
Short-straddle margin (₹1L+ SPAN+exposure on a typical NSE F&O stock) means this strategy is ₹5L-tier only per optcore.capital_tiers — DO NOT trade at ₹5k. Capital_tiers HARD-BLOCKS NSE stock options at the ₹5k tier (SEBI Nov-2024 ₹15-20L notional minimum + physical delivery).
PreEarnings signal fires `days_before` calendar days before each announcement date; the engine then walks max_hold_bars=5 OR the E-6 cutoff, whichever comes first. Events outside the yfinance OHLC window are silently dropped.

NIFTY VRP Audit (Sprint 3)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_vrp_audit.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.

Universe Audit (Sprint 4)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_universe_audit_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.

NIFTY Long-Call Baseline (Sprint 2)

report not present — expecting ng_data/optcore_nifty_backtest_report.json. The corresponding GHA workflow will produce it on the next run.